Risk assessment of wild fish as environmental sources of red sea bream iridovirus (RSIV) outbreaks in aquaculture.

Red sea bream iridovirus (RSIV) causes substantial economic damage to aquaculture. In the present study, RSIV in wild fish near aquaculture installations was surveyed to evaluate the risk of wild fish being an infection source for RSIV outbreaks in cultured fish. In total, 1102 wild fish, consisting of 44 species, were captured from 2 aquaculture areas in western Japan using fishing, gill nets, and fishing baskets between 2019 and 2022. Eleven fish from 7 species were confirmed to harbor the RSIV genome using a probe-based real-time PCR assay. The mean viral load of the RSIV-positive wild fish was 101.1 ± 0.4 copies mg-1 DNA, which was significantly lower than that of seemingly healthy red sea bream Pagrus major in a net pen during an RSIV outbreak (103.3 ± 1.5 copies mg-1 DNA) that occurred in 2021. Sequencing analysis of a partial region of the major capsid protein gene demonstrated that the RSIV genome detected in the wild fish was identical to that of the diseased fish in a fish farm located in the same area in which the wild fish were captured. Based on the diagnostic records of RSIV in the sampled area, the RSIV-infected wild fish appeared during or after the RSIV outbreak in cultured fish, suggesting that RSIV detected in wild fish was derived from the RSIV outbreak in cultured fish. Therefore, wild fish populations near aquaculture installations may not be a significant risk factor for RSIV outbreaks in cultured fish.

Epidemiological investigation of ASF outbreaks in Kerala (India): detection, source tracing and economic implications.

This study investigates suspected African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks in two villages of Kannur district in Kerala, India, with the aim of identifying the causative agent and its genotype, the source of infection, and estimating the economic losses due to the outbreaks. Clinically, the disease was acute with high mortality, while gross pathology was characterized by widespread haemorrhages in various organs, especially the spleen, which was dark, enlarged and had friable cut surfaces with diffuse haemorrhages. Notably, histopathological examination revealed multifocal, diffuse haemorrhages in the splenic parenchyma and lymphoid depletion accompanied by lymphoid cell necrosis. The clinico-pathological observations were suggestive of ASF, which was confirmed by PCR. The source of outbreak was identified as swill and it was a likely point source infection as revealed by epidemic curve analysis. The phylogenetic analysis of p72 gene identified the ASFV in the current outbreak as genotype-II and IGR II variant consistent with ASFVs detected in India thus far. However, the sequence analysis of the Central Variable Region (CVR) of the B602L gene showed that the ASFVs circulating in Kerala (South India) formed a separate clade along with those found in Mizoram (North East India), while ASFVs circulating in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam states of India grouped in to different clade. This study represents the first investigation of ASF outbreak in South India, establishing the genetic relatedness of the ASFV circulating in this region with that in other parts of the country. The study also underscores the utility of the CVR of the B602L gene in genetically characterizing highly similar Genotype II ASFVs to understand the spread of ASF within the country.

Wildlife health surveillance: gaps, needs and opportunities.

Disease emergence represents a global threat to public health, economy and biological conservation. Most emerging zoonotic diseases have an animal origin, most commonly from wildlife. To prevent their spread and to support the implementation of control measures, disease surveillance and reporting systems are needed, and due to globalisation, these activities should be carried out at the global level. To define the main gaps affecting the performance of wildlife health surveillance and reporting systems globally, the authors analysed data from a questionnaire sent to National Focal Points of the World Organisation for Animal Health that inquired on structure and limits of wildlife surveillance and reporting systems in their territories. Responses from 103 Members, covering all areas of the globe, revealed that 54.4% have a wildlife disease surveillance programme and 66% have implemented a strategy to manage disease spread. The lack of dedicated budget affected the possibility of outbreak investigations, sample collection and diagnostic testing. Although most Members maintain records relating to wildlife mortality or morbidity events in centralised databases, data analysis and disease risk assessment are reported as priority needs. The authors' evaluation of surveillance capacity found an overall low level, with marked variability among Members that was not restricted to a specific geographical area. Increased wildlife disease surveillance globally would help in understanding and managing risks to animal and public health. Moreover, consideration of the influence of socio-economic, cultural and biodiversity aspects could improve disease surveillance under a One Health approach.

L'émergence de maladies représente une menace pour la santé publique, l'économie et la conservation de la biodiversité au niveau mondial. La plupart des maladies émergentes sont d'origine animale et proviennent de la faune sauvage. Afin de prévenir leur propagation et de soutenir la mise en oeuvre de mesures de contrôle, une surveillance des maladies et des systèmes de notification sont nécessaires - et ce à l'échelle internationale, en raison de la mondialisation. En vue de définir les lacunes principales affectant les performances de la surveillance et de la notification sanitaire relative à la faune sauvage au niveau mondial, les auteurs ont analysé les données d'un questionnaire envoyé aux Points focaux nationaux de l'Organisation mondiale de la santé animale et traitant de la structure et des limites des systèmes de surveillance et de notification applicables à la faune sauvage sur leur territoire. Selon les réponses des 103 Membres, qui représentaient toutes les régions du monde, 54,4 % disposent d'un programme de surveillance et 66 % ont mis en oeuvre une stratégie visant à gérer la propagation de maladies. L'absence de budgets dédiés affecte la possibilité d'enquêter sur l'apparition d'épidémies, de prélever des échantillons et d'effectuer des tests diagnostiques. Bien que la majorité des Membres consignent dans des bases de données centralisées les événements de mortalité et de morbidité affectant la faune sauvage, l'analyse des données et l'évaluation des risques sanitaires ont été mentionnées comme étant des besoins prioritaires. Les auteurs ont évalué les capacités de surveillance qui se situent, selon eux, à un niveau faible et se caractérisent par une grande variabilité entre les Membres, indépendamment des zones géographiques dont il s'agit. Une meilleure surveillance sanitaire de la faune sauvage au niveau mondial permettrait d'améliorer la compréhension et la gestion des risques pour la santé animale et publique. Par ailleurs, une réflexion sur l'influence des aspects socio-économiques, culturels et liés à la biodiversité améliorerait la surveillance sanitaire mise en place dans le cadre de l'approche Une seule santé.

La aparición de enfermedades representa una amenaza de dimensión mundial para la salud pública, la economía y la conservación de los recursos biológicos. La mayor parte de las enfermedades zoonóticas tienen un origen animal, por lo general localizado en la fauna silvestre. Para evitar que estas enfermedades se propaguen y apoyar la aplicación de medidas de lucha hacen falta sistemas de vigilancia y notificación de enfermedades, sistemas que, teniendo en cuenta las dinámicas de la mundialización, deben declinarse a escala planetaria. Con objeto de determinar las principales carencias que lastran el buen funcionamiento de los sistemas de vigilancia y notificación de enfermedades de la fauna silvestre a escala mundial, los autores analizaron datos extraídos de un cuestionario distribuido entre los puntos focales nacionales de la Organización Mundial de Sanidad Animal, en el cual se les preguntaba por la estructura y los límites que presentaban en su territorio dichos sistemas. Las respuestas recibidas de 103 Miembros de todas las zonas del globo pusieron de relieve que un 54,4% de ellos cuenta con un programa de vigilancia sanitaria de la fauna silvestre y que un 66% tiene implantada una estrategia para contener la propagación de enfermedades. La falta de un presupuesto asignado específicamente a estas tareas limita la posibilidad de investigar eventuales brotes, obtener muestras y practicar pruebas de diagnóstico. Aunque la mayoría de los Miembros lleva un registro de los episodios de mortalidad y morbilidad de animales salvajes en bases de datos centralizadas, el análisis de datos y la determinación del riesgo de enfermedad son dos de los aspectos mencionados como necesidad prioritaria. La evaluación de la capacidad de vigilancia realizada por los autores puso de manifiesto un nivel en general bajo, con una marcada heterogeneidad entre los Miembros que no se circunscribía a una zona geográfica en particular. Una mayor vigilancia de las enfermedades de la fauna silvestre a escala mundial ayudaría a aprehender y manejar mejor los riesgos que estas presentan para la sanidad animal y la salud pública. Además, el hecho de tener en cuenta la influencia de factores socioeconómicos, culturales y ligados a la diversidad biológica podría traducirse en una más eficaz vigilancia sanitaria en clave de Una sola salud.

Fuzzy model for quantitative assessment of the epidemic risk of African Swine Fever within Australia.

African Swine Fever (ASF) has spread rapidly across different continents since 2007 and caused huge biosecurity threats and economic losses. Establishing an effective risk assessment model is of great importance for ASF prevention, especially for those ASF-free countries such as Australia. With a vast territory and an economy heavily relying on primary industry, Australia faces a threat from the spread of ASF. Although ordinary quarantine measures have been well-performed throughout Australia, there is still a need to develop an effective risk assessment model to understand the spread of ASF due to the strong transmission ability of ASF. In this paper, via a comprehensive literature review, and analyzing the transmission factors of ASF, we provide a fuzzy model to assess the epidemic risk of Australian states and territories, under the assumption that ASF has entered Australia. As demonstrated in this work, although the pandemic risk of ASF in Australia is relatively low, there is a risk of irregular and scattered outbreaks, with Victoria (VIC) and New South Wales (NSW) - Australia Capital Territory (NSW-ACT) showed the highest risk. The reliability of this model was also systematically tested by a conjoint analysis model. To our knowledge, this is the first study to comprehensively analyze the ASF epidemic risk in a country using fuzzy modeling. This work can provide an understanding of the risk ASF transmission within Australia based on the fuzzy modeling, the same methodology can also provide insights and useful information for the establishment of fuzzy models to perform the ASF risk assessment for other countries.

Economic impact of highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in Western Java smallholder broiler farms.

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 is considered endemic in most parts of Indonesia and constitutes an important risk for broiler production, especially in Western Java which has the highest poultry population in the country. Most broiler farms in Western Java are smallholder farms that operate under different business types: independent (i.e., revenues based on market price and live bird weight), price-contract (i.e., revenues based on a contract selling price and live bird weight) or makloon (i.e., revenues based on a management fee per sold bird). Many studies focus on the epidemiological impacts of HPAI at the regional level, and insights into the economic impact at the farm level are scarce, especially in the Indonesian context. Meanwhile, a single HPAI outbreak could disrupt smallholder broiler farmers' primary source of income. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the economic impact of HPAI outbreaks under different response scenarios (i.e., no action, stamping out, and early selling) on typical Western Java smallholder broiler farms. Furthermore, the effect of different farm business types and the existence of a sick-bird market on the economic effects of HPAI outbreaks were evaluated. We developed a dynamic stochastic bio-economic simulation model to simulate epidemiological and economic impacts of HPAI outbreaks on a typical Western Java smallholder broiler farm during one production round. Our results show that the economic consequences of HPAI outbreaks for independent and price-contract farms are considerable, ranging from, on average, 1.2-62.7 million Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) losses (€76.9 to €3919), depending on the moment of and response to infection, compared to an expected gross margin of 5.3 million IDR (€331) under normal circumstances. The economic loss for makloon farms was substantially lower than for other business types, reducing their incentive to implement biosecurity. The economic impacts were sensitive to changes in a diverse set of parameters, including disease transmission rate, detection threshold, and stamping-out compensation. The losses in a scenario with stamping out were higher than in other scenarios, especially when stamping out happened near the end of the production round. Moreover, reacting to an outbreak by selling chickens early gave the lowest economic losses, incentivizing farmers to engage in behavior with a high disease transmission risk. Therefore, the results of this study suggest that it is important to consider the economic perspective of individual farmers when designing HPAI mitigation programs. Financial incentives for farmers to control HPAI differ largely between farm business types.

Decision tree risk analysis for FMD outbreak prevention in Egyptian feedlots.

Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) is one of the most contagious and economically influential viral diseases on animal health and productivity. Introduction of newly purchased animals to beef farms constitutes a greater risk for the FMD outbreaks in endemic countries. Physical examination of newly purchased animals in live animal markets and/or at the receiving farm, and the timing of preventative FMD vaccination may reduce the risk of FMD outbreaks under endemic conditions. Small (< 50 animals) and medium (50-500 animals) sized beef farms in Egypt constitute more than 60% of the country's beef industry where protocols for receiving newly purchased animals vary widely between farms. The current risk analysis aimed to build a decision tree model to reduce FMD outbreaks associated with introduction of replacement cattle on Egypt's medium sized beef farms. Management practices explored were the use of physical examinations and FMD vaccination and their timing for replacements with the goal of reducing losses due to FMD outbreaks. A producer survey revealed that more than 50% of the study herds relied on live animal markets as a source for replacements and reported more FMD outbreaks (P-value=0.09), FMD herd morbidity > 50% (p-value=0.05), and weight loss > 15 kg/animal in FMD clinical cases (P-value=0.01) in comparison to herds that received replacements from other farms, imported, or purchased from small stakeholders. More than 70% of the surveyed farms received replacements ≤ 1year old and reported significantly higher FMD outbreaks (P-value=0.02) in comparison to farms that received older animals. More than 80% of the surveyed farms performed physical examination of newly purchased animals before arrival at their premises. Of the surveyed farms, 73% reported FMD outbreaks with 67% of the outbreaks being reported during the Fall and Winter seasons. The decision tree identified physical examination of newly purchased animals prior to arrival and mixing with a premises beef herd followed by vaccination against FMD upon arrival as the intervention resulting in the lowest probability of FMD outbreak (8.9%). In contrast, herds that did not perform physical examination and delay the FMD vaccination for two or more weeks had the highest probability of FMD outbreaks (33.5%).

Epidemiology and economic impact of lumpy skin disease of cattle in Mymensingh and Gaibandha districts of Bangladesh.

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is an emerging viral disease of cattle that negatively impacts livestock by reducing animals' production and increasing management costs. Like other countries, Bangladesh has also faced the ominous effects of LSD. Because of this pressing concern, the present study was undertaken to determine the attack rate and risk factors along with economic losses of the recent LSD outbreaks from October 2019 to June 2020 in Bangladesh's Mymensingh and Gaibandha districts. A total of 1187 cattle from 150 randomly selected cattle farms were surveyed. The diagnosis was made both clinically and molecularly. The overall attack rate, mortality and case fatality were 34%, 1.10% and 3.23%, respectively, but in calves up to 1 month of age, the attack rate, mortality and case-fatality were 41.6%, 12.5% and 30%, respectively. In risk factor analysis using multiple logistic regression, the following factors were significantly (p < .05) associated with LSD occurrence: no administration of goat pox vaccine, frequency of goat pox vaccination - single dose, introduction of new cattle, land type (low land and medium-high land), use of common syringe and needle, and use of common utensils. The average economic loss per case was 9384.41 BDT (110.40 US $). The higher economic loss per case was accounted in Mymensingh district (10248.91 BDT ≈ 120.58 US $) than Gaibandha district (8211.52 BDT ≈ 96.61 US $). The loss was higher in crossbred cattle (9709.58 BDT ≈ 114.23 US $) compared to indigenous cattle (7595.94 BDT ≈ 89.36 US $). The total estimated annual loss due to LSD in Mymensingh and Gaibandha districts was 7763.25 million BDT (91.33 million US $). In Gaibandha district, the estimated annual loss was 2666.20 million BDT (31.37 million US $) while in Mymensingh district it was 5097.05 million BDT (59.97 million US $). Findings of the study could provide useful epidemiological data with losses incurred due to LSD to the livestock owners, field veterinarians and government-level livestock regulators, which will help to formulate prevention and control strategies and minimize the negative impact of LSD's probable return or spread.

A questionnaire survey for the assessment of wild-domestic pig interactions in a context oedema disease outbreaks among wild boars (Sus scrofa) in South-Eastern France.

Pig outdoor farming is gaining popularity and commercial success in the European Union, and its expansion, together with an increasing wild boar population, facilitates interactions between domestic and wild suids. In the Southern French Department of Ardèche, several episodes of mass mortalities due to infection with an enteropathogenic strain of Escherichia coli causing oedema disease (OD) were reported in wild boar populations between 2013 and 2016. In order to investigate a potential link between those events and the frequency of interactions between wild boar and domestic pig, we analyzed regional vegetation and hunting bag data and implemented a semi-structured questionnaire survey among a total of 30 outdoor pig farmers and 30 hunters distributed inside and outside the identified area of OD emergence. One third of interviewed farmers (11/30) had experienced intrusions of wild boars in domestic pig premises during the previous year. Similarly, 23% of interviewed hunters reported interactions between wild boar and feral free-ranging pigs in recent years, and 60% reported the observation of free-ranging pigs with a phenotypic feature of Vietnamese pot-bellied pigs (55%). Our analysis identified that in the OD emergence area, several factors could facilitate the transmission of pathogens between wild and domestic suids including a predominance of forested vegetation, a higher estimated wild boar density, weaker levels of farm biosecurity, a higher level of reported wild boar intrusions in pig farms and several reports of feral pot-bellied pig presence. Although our sample was limited, our study suggested a widespread occurrence of situations facilitating the transmission of pathogens between wild and domestic suids. Similar studies in other rural regions in the European Union are recommended, in order to promote preparedness for the emergence and circulation of shared swine pathogens.

Europe's worst ever bird flu outbreak: This year's epidemic of highly pathogenic avian flu has had a devastating impact on wild and domestic birds and severe economic consequences.

This year's outbreak of avian flu has been the worst ever and prompted much debate and research on developing vaccines for domestic and wild birds.

A cost-benefit analysis of Vietnam's 2006-2010 foot-and-mouth disease control program.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is arguably the most damaging animal disease, affecting three-quarters of the global livestock population. This paper provides a cost-benefit analysis of the first five-year program that used vaccination to contain and control FMD in an endemic country, Vietnam. Our spatial and dynamic model to simulate FMD outbreaks fully considered the distance among livestock premises, their herd sizes, and composition, all of which significantly affect FMD transmission. Our program benefit was consistently estimated due to the Law of Large Number and the design of pairing the control and treatment scenarios which allowed capturing the true benefit of each outbreak realization. The data used to monetize the program benefit were largely drawn from Vietnam's context and statistics, thus obviating the need to make many potentially undue assumptions. Meanwhile, the program costs were actual spending and allocated budget. We found that the vaccination program is highly cost-effective for Vietnam, yielding a net present value of US$136 million (in 2006 prices) over five years and a benefit-cost ratio of 5.7. Our results were robust to different assumptions about the vaccine effectiveness of the livestock unit.

Assessment of the foot-and-mouth disease surveillance system in Brazil.

In 2021, the 88th General Session of the World Assembly of National Delegates to the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) recognized the estates of Acre, Paraná, the Rio Grande do Sul, and Rondônia as being free of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) without vaccination. The certification was also extended to some cities in Amazonas and Mato Grosso. The new national strategic plan for 2026, which focuses on creating and maintaining sustainable conditions to expand FMD-free zones without vaccination, imposes new challenges and requires continuous evaluation of the FMD surveillance system. The objective of this research was to evaluate the FMD surveillance system in Brazil using quantitative models through Bayesian network approaches. The research was conducted using the Continental Surveillance and Information System (SivCont) database for Official Veterinary Services in Brazil, which refers to notified vesicular syndromes. The data on states, reported diseases, source of notification, disease confirmation, and timeliness (TL in days) of the delay by owners in notifying (TL.1) after a suspected case of the disease, and the response of Brazilian Veterinary Services after being notified (TL.2), were analysed. The collected data were analysed using Bayesian networks. It was observed that diseases with symptoms identical to FMD are the most notified events. TL.1 was long (mean of 18.96, CI: 18.33-19.59), and a low number of notifications was observed throughout the study period, which increases the chances of disseminating FMD in the population. Meanwhile, TL.2 suggests appropriate effectiveness of the Veterinary Services responding to suspected cases of FMD with interventions in less than 24 h (mean of 1, CI: 0.68-1.31). This study evaluated the performance of Brazilian Veterinary Services facing the report of vesicular diseases in the period 2004-2018. The results can help the states improve the surveillance system and the transition to the vaccination stop. Furthermore, the analytical method presented in the paper could serve as a model for other countries to evaluate the effectiveness of FMD surveillance systems.

Big data-based risk assessment of poultry farms during the 2020/2021 highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemic in Korea.

Outbreaks of H5-type highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in poultry have been reported in various parts of the world. To respond to these continuous threats, numerous surveillance programs have been applied to poultry raising facilities as well as wild birds. In Korea, a surveillance program was developed aimed at providing a preemptive response to possible outbreaks at poultry farms. The purpose of this study is to comprehensively present the risks of HPAI evaluated by this program in relation to actual outbreak farms during the epidemic of 2020/2021. A deep learning-based risk assessment program was trained based on the pattern of livestock vehicles visiting poultry farms and HPAI outbreaks to calculate the risk of HPAI for farms linked by the movement of livestock vehicles (such farms are termed "epidemiologically linked farms"). A total of 7,984 risk assessments were conducted, and the results were categorized into four groups. The proportion of the highest risk level was greater in duck farms (13.6%) than in chicken farms (8.8%). Among the duck farms, the proportion of the highest risk level was much greater in farms where breeder ducks were raised (accounting for 26.4% of the risk) than in farms where ducks were raised to obtain meat (12.8% of the risk). A higher risk level was also found in cases where the species of the outbreak farm and epidemiologically linked farms were the same (proportion of the highest risk level = 13.2%) compared to that when the species between the two farms were different (7.9%). The overall proportion of farms with HPAI outbreaks among epidemiologically linked farms (attack rate, AR) was 1.7% as HPAI was confirmed on 67 of the 3,883 epidemiologically linked farms. The AR was highest for breeder ducks (15.3%) among duck farms and laying hens (4.8%) among chicken farms. The AR of the pairs where livestock vehicles entered the inner farm area was 1.3 times (95% confidence interval: 1.4-2.9) higher than that of all pairs. With the risk information provided, customized preventive measures can be implemented for each epidemiologically linked farm. The use of this risk assessment program would be a good example of information-based surveillance and support decision-making for controlling animal diseases.

Evaluation of the economic impact of classical and African swine fever epidemics using OutCosT, a new spreadsheet-based tool.

African swine fever (ASF) and classical swine fever (CSF) are two major transboundary animal diseases of swine with important socioeconomic consequences at farm, subnational and national level. The objective of this study was to evaluate the direct cost of outbreaks and their control at country/regional level in four countries: namely CSF in Colombia in 2015-2016, the retrospective cost of ASF in the Philippines in 2019 and in a province of Vietnam in 2020 and a hypothetical ASF scenario in one region in North Macedonia, using the newly developed Outbreak Costing Tool (OutCosT). The tool calculates the costs of 106 different items, broken down by up to four types of farms, and by who assumes the cost (whether veterinary services, farmers or other stakeholders). The total cost of CSF in Colombia was US$ 3.8 million, of which 88% represented the cost of the vaccination campaign. For ASF, there were wide differences between countries: US$ 8,26,911 in Lao Cai (Vietnam), US$ 33,19,666 in North Macedonia and over US$ 58 million in the Philippines. While in the Philippines and Vietnam, 96-98% of the cost occurred in the affected farms, the highest expenditure in North Macedonia scenario was the movement control of the neighbouring and at-risk farms (77%). These important differences between countries depend on the spread of the disease, but also on the production systems affected and the measures applied. Apart from the financial cost, these diseases have other negative impacts, especially in the livelihoods of smallholder farms. The OutCosT tool also allows users to evaluate qualitatively other important aspects related to the epidemics, such as the impact on human health, the environment, animal welfare, socioeconomic vulnerability, trading and political response. OutCosT, which is a FAO corporate tool (available online at: https://www.fao.org/fileadmin/user_upload/faoweb/animal-health/OutCosT_PIG.xlsx), can be an important tool to support country authorities to rapidly respond to a swine disease outbreak by estimating the associated costs and for advocacy purposes to mobilize resources at national or international levels.

Joint assessment of temporal segmentation, time unit and detection algorithms in syndromic surveillance.

The choice of the aggregation that defines the temporal unit of epidemiological surveillance is part of the more theoretical framework of the modifiable temporal unit problem (MTUP). It has been demonstrated that this choice influences temporal cluster detection and may lead to false-positive results and poor estimation of regression model parameters. In syndromic surveillance (SyS), despite the choice of which temporal aggregation to use being crucial, it has not yet been addressed in the literature. In most SyS systems, this choice is driven by the frequency of the data collection and/or human resources available, although neither the temporal unit's influence on the performance of anomaly detection algorithms nor on the efficiency of the SyS are known.The main objective of our study was to analyze the influence of the temporal aggregation unit on the performances of SyS detection algorithms used routinely, according to the characteristics of specific syndromes and outbreaks. Simulating daily time series of various syndromes, we tested three different time series aggregation methods. For each of four anomaly detection algorithms and their variants, we calculated seven performance indicators and multi-criteria scores to guide epidemiologists in their choice of which temporal aggregation of surveillance to use. From 19,200 analyzed time series, we observed an effect of temporal aggregation on the performance of the detection algorithms tested. Results also showed that the time aggregation unit was linked to the detection algorithm used, and that strong aggregation-algorithm interactions need to be taken into account when deciding on which aggregation-algorithm pair to use. Using theoretical data, our study also showed that no one ideal aggregation-algorithm pair exists for all contexts when deciding on which temporal unit of surveillance to use, and that the choice depends on several parameters.Our results can help public health practitioners choose the most appropriate time series aggregation and algorithm according to their specific needs. Finally, the present work enabled us to develop recommendations for a One Health project where the same time aggregation type and detection method could be used for both human and animal syndromic surveillance data.

A systematic review of the methods used to analyze the economic impact of endemic foot-and-mouth disease.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) has large economic consequences in livestock systems, which must be robustly assessed to support disease control policy. This study described and assessed methods used within economic analyses of FMD and its control in endemic contexts. A systematic literature search was conducted in six academic search engines. Studies were included if they applied an economic analysis to a context with endemic FMD, producing a result articulated as a monetary figure. Data collected from each article included country of study, animal population, geographical level of analysis, time horizon and type of economic analysis. Each study was scored using a quality assessment tool containing a checklist of 42 reporting criteria. Sixty-four articles were included, from 12,087 identified in the searches, describing results for 26 countries. Over half of the articles (56%) described economic impact of FMD retrospectively, often only accounting for a selection of direct costs at farm or household level. Median quality score calculated was 41% (range 8%-86%). Methods were generally poorly reported, confirming previously described difficulties in using published data to evaluate economic impact of endemic FMD. Few studies included disaggregation of public and private costs, or benefits, of FMD control, or accounted for economic or social influences of scale in vaccination programmes. Many of the studies included had gaps in both premise and methodology. If these analyses are used when planning and budgeting FMD control programmes in endemic contexts, there is a risk of inefficient resource allocation.

The economic benefits of targeted response strategies against foot-and-mouth disease in Australia.

Recent developments in control of highly infectious diseases attempt to improve emergency response efforts by more clearly focusing or targeting response tools according to risk. For example, advances in surveillance testing and sampling deliver their results by more accurately and precisely targeting the population of interest. In this work, targeted implementation of trading zones and vaccination were examined for simulated outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Australia. Trading zones allowing unaffected Australian states to resume exports following an outbreak of FMD were assessed using multiple tools. A Victorian incursion scenario with traditional stamping out and vaccination as control options, was simulated using the AADIS model Version 2.47, to characterise the geographic extent of potential outbreaks, the number of animals infected, and the date of last cull indicating duration of the outbreak. Information on disease spread from the AADIS simulations was then used to identify the boundaries of trading zones for the incursion scenario, in which vaccination with trading zones was found to further reduce disease impacts relative to stamping out alone with trading zones. The number of animals culled due to disease provided supply shocks for stamping out alone and vaccinate-to-retain, while the number of vaccinated animals was added to the number of animals culled due to disease for the supply shock of vaccinate-to-remove. The day of last cull was combined with historical FMD trade recovery and Australian export data to estimate the share of Australian exports that would be embargoed under trading zones. The market impacts - changes in equilibrium quantities and prices - of the supply shock, trading zones, and consumer reactions - were simulated within ABARES' AgEmissions partial equilibrium model of Australian agriculture. For this simulated large outbreak, where vaccinate-to-remove was utilised along with trading zones, producer losses were reduced by AUD 4 billion in present value terms over 10 years estimated at a 7% discount rate (PV10,7%) compared to an outbreak where stamping out alone is applied with trading zones. Introducing FMD virus risk mitigation measures for wool to further target trading zones reduced the economic impacts by an additional AUD 3.6 billion (PV10,7%). Outbreak response cost savings and additional potential costs under vaccinate-to-retain with trading zones were also compared to the vaccinate-to-remove control with trading zones. Results emphasised the importance of outbreak characteristics in determining trading zones and targeting of vaccination. Economic analyses identified how additional investments in targeting outbreak response is of value to producers.

Economic impact of a peste des petits ruminants outbreak and vaccination cost in northwest Ethiopia.

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is an important endemic disease of small ruminants in Ethiopia. While vaccination is widely used in the country to control the disease, quantitative estimates of the actual economic losses due to outbreaks and costs of vaccination are scarce. This study assessed the economic impact and costs of PPR vaccination in Metema district, northwest Ethiopia. The economic impact of the disease was estimated from an outbreak investigation including interviews with 233 smallholder farmers in PPR-affected kebeles (subdistricts). The cost of PPR vaccination was obtained from vaccination programs in six kebeles of the district and from secondary data in the district veterinary office. In the investigated PPR outbreak, animal-level PPR morbidity and mortality rates were 51% and 22%, respectively, in sheep and 51% and 25%, respectively, in goats. The flock level morbidity rate was 83% for sheep flocks and 87% for goat flocks. The mean flock level loss was Ethiopian Birr (ETB) 7835 (USD 329 in 2018 average exchange rate) (95% CI: 5954-9718) for affected sheep flocks and ETB 7136 (USD 300) (95% CI: 5869-8404) for affected goat flocks. The losses in all study flocks during the outbreak were ETB 319 (USD 13.4) per sheep and ETB 306 (USD 12.9) per goat. Mortality accounted for more than 70% of the total losses in both sheep and goat flocks. Vaccination costs for PPR were estimated at ETB 3 per correctly vaccinated animal. Based on the estimated animal-level direct economic losses and vaccination cost, it can be conjectured that vaccination will pay if a district PPR outbreak occurs more than once every 13 years. This does not account for additional benefits from vaccine-derived herd immunity reducing disease burden in the wider population. In conclusion, PPR caused high morbidity and mortality in the affected flocks and resulted in high economic losses, equivalent to 14% of annual household income, dramatically affecting the livelihoods of affected flock owners. The vaccination practised in the district is likely to have a positive economic return, with strengthened vaccination programmes bringing reduced economic impact and improved livelihoods.

A methodology to assess indirect economic impacts of animal disease outbreaks: A case of hypothetical African swine fever outbreak in Switzerland.

Indirect costs of animal disease outbreaks often significantly exceed the direct costs. Despite their importance, indirect costs remain poorly characterized due to their complexity. In this study, we developed a framework to assess the indirect costs of a hypothetical African swine fever outbreak in Switzerland. We collected data through international and national stakeholder interviews, analysis of national disease control regulations and industry data. We developed a framework to capture the resulting qualitative and quantitative data, categorize the impacts of these regulations, and rank the impacts in order of importance. We then developed a spreadsheet model to calculate the indirect costs of one category of control measure for an individual group of stakeholders. We developed a decision tree model to guide the most economically favourable implementation plan for a given control measure category, under different outbreak scenarios. Our results suggest that the most important measure/impact categories were 'Transport logistics', 'Consumer demand', 'Prevention of wild boar and domestic pig contact' and 'Slaughter logistics'. In our hypothetical scenario, the greatest costs associated with 'Prevention of wild boar and domestic pig contact' were due to assumed partial or total depopulation of fattening pig farms in order to reduce herd size to comply with the simulated control regulations. The model also provides suggestions on the most economically favourable strategy to reduce contact between wild boar and domestic pigs in control areas. Our approach provides a new framework to integrate qualitative and quantitative data to guide disease control strategy. This method could be useful in other countries and for other diseases, including in data- and resource-poor settings, or areas with limited experience of animal disease outbreaks.

Could the re-emerging practice of wild boar hunting linked to the recent economic crisis lead to new outbreaks of trichinellosis in Lebanon?

BACKGROUND: Documented trichinellosis outbreaks in Lebanon date back to the late 19th century. The first published outbreaks were attributed to the consumption of wild boar meat, while those that followed incriminated pork. The practice of hunting wild boar is currently re-emerging in Lebanon given the recent economic crisis that has limited the purchase of livestock meat. RESULTS: In Lebanon, at least 15 outbreaks of trichinellosis have been reported since 1870. We report an outbreak in January 2019, where five of the fifteen people present at a barbecue party were diagnosed with trichinellosis after wild boar meat consumption. Two subspecies of wild boar, Sus scrofa libycus and Sus scrofa scrofa, are commonly targeted by hunters. Hunters and consumers are sometimes unaware of the ineffectiveness of freezing meat and cooking over a wood fire to avoid trichinellosis. Unexpectedly, the National Center for Zoonosis Control receives every year 4 samples of wild boar meat, all free of Trichinella sp. larvae. CONCLUSION: Trichinellosis, a zoonosis typically unrecognized or undeclared, still represents a risk linked to the consumption of meat from wild animals, especially wild boar. Consumers, hunters, veterinarians, and butchers need to be further educated. Government regulation of wild boar hunting should be implemented to prevent further outbreaks.

TITLE: La réémergence de la pratique de la chasse au sanglier liée à la récente crise économique pourrait-elle conduire à de nouveaux foyers de trichinellose au Liban ? ABSTRACT: Contexte : Les épidémies de trichinellose sont documentées au Liban depuis la fin du XIXème siècle. Les premiers foyers publiés étaient attribués à la consommation de viande de sanglier, tandis que ceux qui suivirent incriminaient le porc. La pratique de la chasse au sanglier est en train de réapparaître au Liban compte tenu de la récente crise économique qui a limité l'achat de viande de bétail. Résultats : Au Liban, au moins 15 foyers de trichinellose ont été signalés depuis 1870. Nous rapportons un foyer en janvier 2019, où cinq des quinze personnes présentes à une soirée barbecue ont reçu un diagnostic de trichinellose après consommation de viande de sanglier. Deux sous-espèces de sangliers, Sus scrofa libycus et Sus scrofa scrofa, sont couramment ciblées par les chasseurs. Les chasseurs et les consommateurs ignorent parfois l'inefficacité de la congélation de la viande et de la cuisson au feu de bois pour éviter la trichinellose. De manière inattendue, le Centre National de Contrôle des Zoonoses reçoit chaque année 4 échantillons de viande de sanglier, tous indemnes de larves de Trichinella spp. Conclusion : La trichinellose, zoonose généralement méconnue ou non déclarée, représente toujours un risque lié à la consommation de viande d'animaux sauvages, notamment de sanglier. Les consommateurs, les chasseurs, les vétérinaires et les bouchers doivent être mieux formés. Des réglementations gouvernementales sur la chasse au sanglier devraient être mises en œuvre pour prévenir de nouvelles épidémies.

[Yellow fever prevention and control: assessment of surveillance activities in a previously unaffected area in Brazil]. / Prevenção e controle da febre amarela: avaliação de ações de vigilância em área indene no Brasil.

Following the reemergence of yellow fever in 2014/2015, Brazil recorded its largest yellow fever epidemic in recent decades, mainly affecting the country's Southeast region. Yellow fever is a hemorrhagic viral disease caused by a flavivirus transmitted by sylvatic mosquitos (Haemagogus; Sabethes). In the urban cycle, eradicated in Brazil since 1942, the virus is transmitted by Aedes aegypti. Nonhuman primates are the principal hosts of the virus and constitute "sentinels" in yellow fever surveillance. This article describes the control and prevention activities launched during the yellow fever epidemic in the State of Espírito Santo, Brazil, and the implementation of vaccination, through an ecological study with a spatial approach. The study revealed the lack of detection of epizootics in nonhuman primates by surveillance services in Espírito Santo, with simultaneous detection in humans. The study presented the evolution of vaccination activities, reaching 85% overall coverage for the state in six months, varying widely, from 59% to 122%, between municipalities (counties). Importantly, 55% of the municipalities with timely immunization, considering the interval adopted for this study, did not present human cases. The intensification of surveillance activities, communication between areas, and multidisciplinary teams in managing the epidemic optimized the detection and diagnosis of human cases and allowed control of the epidemic. The study identifies progress and points to some late measures and gaps in surveillance that require improvements.

A partir da reemergência da febre amarela em 2014/2015, o Brasil registrou nos anos sequentes sua maior epidemia de febre amarela das últimas décadas, atingindo principalmente a região sudeste. A febre amarela, doença viral hemorrágica, é causada por um flavivírus, transmitido por mosquitos silvestres (Haemagogus; Sabethes). Na ocorrência do ciclo urbano, erradicado no Brasil desde 1942, a transmissão se dá pelo Aedes aegypti. Primatas não humanos são os principais hospedeiros do vírus e constituem "sentinelas" na vigilância da febre amarela. Este artigo descreve as ações de controle e prevenção desencadeadas durante a epidemia de febre amarela no Estado do Espírito Santo, Brasil, e a implementação da vacinação por meio de um estudo ecológico com abordagem espacial. O estudo evidenciou a falha na detecção de epizootias em primatas não humanos pelos serviços de vigilância do Espírito Santo, sendo simultânea à detecção em humanos. Apresentou a evolução das ações de vacinação, com alcance de 85% de cobertura vacinal geral para o estado em seis meses, sendo heterogênea entre os municípios (de 59% a 122%). Destaca-se que 55% dos municípios com ações de imunização em tempo oportuno, considerando o intervalo adotado para este estudo, não apresentaram casos em humanos. A intensificação das ações de vigilância, interlocução entre as áreas e equipes multidisciplinares na condução da epidemia otimizou a detecção e o diagnóstico dos casos em humanos e viabilizou o controle da epidemia. Foi possível reconhecer avanços, apontar algumas medidas tardias e lacunas na vigilância que necessitam melhorias.

A partir del resurgimiento de la fiebre amarilla en 2014/2015, Brasil registró los años siguientes su mayor epidemia de fiebre amarilla de las últimas décadas, alcanzando principalmente la región sudeste. La fiebre amarilla, enfermedad viral hemorrágica, es causada por un flavivirus, transmitido por mosquitos silvestres (Haemagogus; Sabethes). Respecto a la ocurrencia del ciclo urbano, erradicado en Brasil desde 1942, la transmisión se produce por el Aedes aegypti. Primates no humanos son los principales huéspedes del virus, y constituyen "centinelas" en la vigilancia de la fiebre amarilla. Este artículo describe las acciones de control y prevención desencadenadas durante la epidemia de fiebre amarilla en el Estado de Espírito Santo, Brasil, y la implementación de la vacunación mediante un estudio ecológico con abordaje espacial. El estudio evidenció el fallo en la detección de epizootias en primates no humanos por los servicios de vigilancia de Espírito Santo, siendo simultánea a la detección en humanos. Presentó la evolución de las acciones de vacunación, con alcance de un 85% de cobertura en la vacunación general para el estado en seis meses, siendo heterogénea entre los municipios (de 59% a 122%). Se destaca que un 55% de los municipios con acciones de inmunización en tiempo oportuno, considerando el intervalo adoptado para este estudio, no presentaron casos humanos. La intensificación de las acciones de vigilancia, interlocución entre las áreas y equipos multidisciplinarios en la gestión de la epidemia optimizó la detección y diagnóstico de los casos humanos y viabilizó el control de la epidemia. Fue posible reconocer avances, apuntar algunas medidas tardías y lagunas en la vigilancia que necesitan mejorías.